Machine learning to predict myocardial injury and death after non-cardiac surgery

Myocardial injury due to ischaemia within 30 days of non-cardiac surgery is prognostically relevant. We aimed to determine the discrimination, calibration, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of single-layer and multiple-layer neural networks for myocardial injury and death within 30 postoperative days. We analysed data from 24,589 participants in the Vascular Events in Non-cardiac Surgery Patients Cohort Evaluation study. Validation was performed on a randomly selected subset of the study population. Discrimination for myocardial injury by single-layer vs. multiple-layer models generated areas (95%CI) under the receiver operating characteristic curve of: 0.70 (0.69–0.72) vs. 0.71 (0.70–0.73) with variables available before surgical referral, p < 0.001; 0.73 (0.72–0.75) vs. 0.75 (0.74–0.76) with additional variables available on admission, but before surgery, p < 0.001; and 0.76 (0.75–0.77) vs. 0.77 (0.76–0.78) with the addition of subsequent variables, p < 0.001. Discrimination for death by single-layer vs. multiple-layer models generated areas (95%CI) under the receiver operating characteristic curve of: 0.71 (0.66–0.76) vs. 0.74 (0.71–0.77) with variables available before surgical referral, p = 0.04; 0.78 (0.73–0.82) vs. 0.83 (0.79–0.86) with additional variables available on admission but before surgery, p = 0.01; and 0.87 (0.83–0.89) vs. 0.87 (0.85–0.90) with the addition of subsequent variables, p = 0.52. The accuracy of the multiple-layer model for myocardial injury and death with all variables was 70% and 89%, respectively.     

Major complications of airway management: a prospective multicentre observational study

We conducted an observational study of serious airway complications, using similar methods to the fourth UK National Audit Project (NAP4) over a period of 1 year across four hospitals in one region in the UK. We also conducted an activity survey over a week, using NAP4 methods to yield an estimate for relevant denominators to help interpret the primary data. There were 17 serious airway complications, defined as: failed airway management leading to cancellation of surgery (eight); airway management in recovery (five); unplanned intensive care admission (three); and unplanned emergency front of neck access (one). There were no reports of death or brain damage. This was an estimate of 0.028% (1 in 3600) complications using the denominator of 61,000 general anaesthetics per year in the region. Complications in patients with ‘predicted easy’ airways were rare (approximately 1 in 14,200), but 45 times more common in those with ‘predicted difficult’ airways (approximately 1 in 315). Airway management in both groups was similar (induction of anaesthesia followed by supraglottic airway or tracheal tube). Use of awake/sedation intubation, videolaryngoscopy and high-flow nasal oxygenation were uncommon even in the predicted difficult airway patients (in 2.7%, 32.4% and 9.5% of patients, respectively). We conclude that the incidence of serious airway complications is at least as high as it was during NAP4. Despite airway prediction being used, this is not informing subsequent management.     

Polyvictimization and Psychiatric Sequelae Associated with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C)

Female Genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is associated with enduring psychiatric complications. In this study, we investigate the rates of co-morbid abuses and polyvictimization experienced by survivors of FGM/C. This is a sub-analysis of a cohort study examining the patient population at the EMPOWER Center for Survivors of Sex Trafficking and Sexual Violence in New York City. A retrospective chart-review of electronic medical records was conducted for all consenting adult patients who had FGM/C and had an intake visit between January 16, 2014 and March 6, 2020. Of the 80 participants, ages ranged from 20 to 62 years with a mean of 37.4 (SD?=?9.1) years. In addition to FGM/C, participants were victims of physical abuse (43; 53.8%), emotional abuse (35; 43.8%), sexual abuse (35; 43.8%), forced marriage (20; 25%), child marriage (13; 16.3%), and sex trafficking (1; 1.4%). There was a high degree of polyvictimization, with 41 (51.2%) experiencing 3 or more of the aforementioned abuses. Having FGM/C on or after age 13 or having a higher total abuse score was also found to be strong predictors of depression and PTSD. The high rates of polyvictimization among survivors of FGM/C are associated with development of depression and PTSD. Despite co-morbid abuses, patients still attribute substantial psychiatric symptoms to their FGM/C. Health care providers should understand the high risk of polyvictimization when caring for this patient population.

     

Effect of iron deficiency without anaemia on days alive and out of hospital in patients undergoing valvular heart surgery

Comprehensive evidence regarding the treatment of non-anaemic iron deficiency in patients undergoing valvular heart surgery is lacking. This study aimed to investigate the association between non-anaemic iron deficiency and postoperative outcomes in these patients. We retrospectively analysed 321 patients of which 180 (56%) had iron deficiency (defined as serum ferritin < 100 ng.ml^-1 or < 300 ng.ml^-1 with transferrin saturation < 20%). While the iron-deficient group had lower pre-operative haemoglobin levels than the non-iron deficient group (median (IQR [range]) 134 (127–141 [120–172]) g.l^-1, 143 (133–150 [120–179]) g.l^-1, p = 0.001), there was no between-group difference in allogeneic red blood cell transfusion. Median (IQR [range]) days alive and out of hospital at postoperative day 90 was 1 day shorter in the iron-deficient group (80 (77–82 [9–85]) days vs. 81 (79–83 [0–85]) days, p = 0.026). In multivariable analysis, only cardiopulmonary bypass duration (p = 0.032) and intra-operative allogeneic red blood cell transfusion (p = 0.011) were significantly associated with reduced days alive and out of hospital at postoperative day 90. Iron deficiency did not exert any adverse influence on secondary outcomes except length of hospital stay. Our findings indicate that non-anaemic iron deficiency alone is not associated with adverse effects in patients undergoing valvular heart surgery when it does not translate into an increased risk of allogeneic transfusion.     

Somatic hypermutation defects in two adult hyper immunoglobulin M patients

Immunologic Research - Hyper immunoglobulin M (HIGM) syndrome is a rare disorder of the immune system with impaired antibody functions. The clinical picture of the patients varies according to the...     

Method’s corner: Allergist’s guide to network meta-analysis

Network meta-analyses (NMAs) simultaneously estimate the effects of multiple possible treatment options for a given clinical presentation. For allergists to benefit optimally from NMAs, they must understand the process and be able to interpret the results. Through a worked example published in Pediatric Allergy and Immunology, we summarize how to identify credible NMAs and interpret them with a focus on recent innovations in the GRADE approach (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation). NMAs build on traditional systematic reviews and meta-analyses that consider only direct paired comparisons by including indirect evidence, thus allowing the simultaneous assessment of the relative effect of all pairs of competing alternatives. Our framework informs clinicians of how to identify credible NMAs and address the certainty of the evidence. Trustworthy NMAs fill a critical gap in providing key inferences using direct and indirect evidence to inform clinical decision making when faced with more than two competing courses of treatment options. This document will help allergists to identify trustworthy NMAs to enhance patient care.